Oil & Gas · Analysis
Oil Markets Brace for Prolonged Disruption as Hormuz Strait Remains Effectively Closed
Despite ceasefire announcements and brief reopening declarations, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains near zero as Iran and the U.S. maintain dueling blockades. Meanwhile, Nigeria's Dangote refinery emerges as a critical supplier, and major consumer brands warn of billion-dollar profit hits from surging crude prices.
Stake & Paper Editorial TeamApril 26, 2026
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained very light this week, with fewer than 10 vessels crossing daily—far below the normal 100-plus ships that transited before the war
, according to CNBC.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime choke point for world energy trade, has been largely blocked by Iran since February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched an air war against Iran
, according to multiple sources tracking the crisis.
Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said "reopening the Strait of Hormuz is impossible" as long as the U.S. blockade is in place
, CNBC reported.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Wednesday that it seized two container ships as they tried to cross the strait "without authorization," according to the state news agency Tasnim
.
Iran's attacks on oil tankers before the ceasefire led to what's been described as the largest oil supply disruption in history, with about 20% of the world's crude supplies passing through the strait before the war
, according to CNBC.
According to market data, WTI crude traded at $71.50 per barrel on Friday, up 0.6%, while Brent crude stood at $75.20 per barrel, up 0.5%—well below the peak of over $118 per barrel reached during the height of the crisis but still elevated compared to pre-conflict levels.
Nigeria Fills the Refining Gap
As Middle Eastern supply routes remain choked, Nigeria has emerged as an unexpected bright spot in global fuel markets.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals exported 44,000 barrels per day of gasoline in March 2026—an achievement that has positioned the country as a net exporter of petrol for the first time, with a surplus of about 3,000 b/d
, according to Vanguard News.
Dangote Refinery announced late Sunday it had sold 12 cargoes totalling 456,000 tonnes to countries such as Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Tanzania, Ghana and Togo
, Africanews reported.
The Airlines Operators of Nigeria disclosed that the refinery currently supplies over 95 per cent of the Jet A1 fuel consumed nationwide, while also exporting 1.1 billion litres of aviation fuel to Europe between March and April 20
, according to The Details News.
Crude supply to the refinery rose to about 565,000 b/d, the second-highest intake since the 650,000 b/d-capacity facility began operations in late 2023
, Vanguard News reported. The development comes at a critical moment, as
many countries are seeking alternative supply routes following disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the war in the Middle East
, according to Premium Times.
Consumer Giants Sound the Alarm
The ripple effects of elevated oil prices are now hitting corporate bottom lines far beyond the energy sector.
US consumer goods giant Procter & Gamble warned of a roughly $1 billion hit to its fiscal 2027 profit from surging oil prices, joining a host of global companies flagging significant cost pressures from the war in Iran
, according to RTE.
The profit hit to P&G's fiscal year beginning July accounts for the impact of oil price jumping from $60 a barrel before the conflict to around $100 today on plastics and paper for packaging, as well as transportation charges
, The Business Standard reported.
"The noise, I would call it, from the commodity exposure is significant, as a billion dollars after tax is nothing to sneeze at from a headwind standpoint," said P&G finance chief Andre Schulten on a post-earnings call
.
A Reuters review of statements from 172 companies since the start of the Iran war showed 24 of them have either withdrawn or cut their outlook, while 35 have signalled price hikes and another 35 have warned of a financial hit from the conflict
, according to The Business Standard.
European rival Nestle has warned of higher costs due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade, while Nivea-maker Beiersdorf is considering price hikes later this year if commodity costs continue to rise
.
Geothermal Gains Momentum Amid Energy Volatility
While fossil fuel markets face unprecedented disruption, the U.S. geothermal sector is experiencing a surge of investment and government support.
The U.S. Geological Survey estimates that enhanced geothermal systems offer 135 GW of clean energy production potential in the Great Basin of the U.S. Southwest alone, while other predictions suggest there could be up to 150 GW of production capacity
, according to OilPrice.com.
Fervo Energy's Cape Generating Station under construction in Utah will be the first large-scale commercial-scale EGS generator in the United States, with a planned maximum capacity of 53 megawatts and 28 MW of net summer capacity, scheduled to come online in June 2026
, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported.
Meta signed an agreement with geothermal developer SAGE to provide Meta's data center operations with up to 150 MW of the first new geothermal power east of the Rocky Mountains
, according to the EIA.
Although the United States leads the world in geothermal electricity capacity with about four gigawatts, DOE analysis shows the potential for at least 300 gigawatts of reliable, flexible geothermal power on the U.S. grid by 2050
, the Department of Energy stated. The Trump administration has continued to support geothermal development even as it has rolled back support for other renewable energy sectors, viewing the technology as compatible with its energy dominance agenda.
Canada Approves Major Gas Pipeline Expansion
In a sign that North American energy infrastructure is moving forward despite global volatility,
the federal government has approved a $4-billion plan by Enbridge Inc. to expand an existing natural gas pipeline in British Columbia
, CBC News reported Friday.
The Sunrise project would add 300 million cubic feet per day of transportation capacity on Enbridge's 3.6-billion-cubic-feet-per-day Westcoast system, which connects gas fields in northeastern B.C. and northwestern Alberta to the Canada-U.S. border, involving adding almost 140 kilometres of new pipe by constructing 11 looping segments parallel to the existing line
, according to CBC.
"Some of the capacity will no doubt go offshore," Matthew Akman, who leads Enbridge's gas transmission and midstream business, told reporters Friday
.
Construction on the pipeline is expected to begin this summer, with startup targeted for late 2028
, CBC reported.
The existing Westcoast system is approximately 12.5 percent owned by the Stonlasec8 Indigenous Alliance Limited Partnership, which represents 38 Indigenous groups in British Columbia
, according to the Canadian government.
The energy landscape is being reshaped in real time. With the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed despite ceasefire extensions, markets are adjusting to a new reality where traditional supply routes can't be taken for granted. Nigeria's refining capacity is proving its worth precisely when global markets need alternatives most, while North American infrastructure investments signal a longer-term bet on regional energy security over global interdependence.