The United Arab Emirates announced Tuesday it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, in a significant blow to the oil cartel , ending more than five decades of membership at a moment when global energy markets are already reeling from the worst supply disruption in history.

The UAE, the world's seventh-largest producer of oil, announced its withdrawal just as OPEC prepared to meet in Vienna on Wednesday . According to market data, WTI crude traded at $71.50 per barrel on Monday, up 0.6%, while Brent crude stood at $75.20 per barrel, up 0.5%. Bloomberg reported that the UAE's exit after six decades of membership is the culmination of years of tension with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia both over oil output policy and competition for regional political influence, and Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said in an interview that the disruption caused by the war created an opportune time for the move .

The Iran war wiped out 7.88 million barrels per day of OPEC's production in March, resulting in the biggest supply collapse for the producers' group in recent decades, with OPEC production falling 27 per cent to 20.79 million bpd in March—surpassing the cutting back of 6.28 million bpd recorded in May 2020 after the Covid-19 pandemic hit global oil demand and exceeding the drop in production from the 1970s oil crisis and the 1991 Gulf War .

First Tankers Exit Hormuz as Strait Remains Largely Closed

The first oil and gas shipments are beginning to move through the Strait of Hormuz after weeks of disruption, with ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showing that the LNG tanker Mubaraz has successfully exited the chokepoint, marking the first such transit since hostilities began . Separately, the crude supertanker Idemitsu Maru, operated by Japan's Idemitsu Kosan, has also begun exiting the waterway after departing a holding position in the Gulf .

Since the start of the US-Israel war on Iran nine weeks ago, the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) is shipped during peacetime, has become the chokepoint of the global economy . About 2,000 ships remain stranded in the Gulf, waiting to be allowed through . The United States has said it will take six months to clear mines it believes have been laid by Iran , while shipping insurance could cost 20 times more than before the war, analysts say .

The International Energy Agency has characterized the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the "largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market" . The paralysis of transit lines through the Strait of Hormuz has seen vital shipments fall from 20 million barrels per day in February to just 3.8 million in early April, pushing North Sea Dated crude to $130 per barrel .

ADNOC Bets Tens of Billions on U.S. Natural Gas

As the UAE charts its own path outside OPEC, ADNOC's international arm XRG is pursuing major US natural gas investments worth tens of billions of dollars to build a vertically integrated global gas business . Chief investment officer Nameer Siddiqui says 29 potential deals are under evaluation, spanning controlled transactions, drilling joint ventures and minority stakes .

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is planning to invest tens of billions of dollars to build a natural gas business in the United States as it accelerates efforts to diversify its portfolio amid ongoing disruption in global energy markets, with Siddiqui saying the ambition spans the full value chain, including upstream production, pipelines, processing infrastructure, liquefaction facilities and downstream regasification and delivery to end users . The company is evaluating a mix of controlled transactions, joint ventures and minority stakes to support growing global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as rising US gas demand driven by data centre expansion .

According to market data, Henry Hub Natural Gas traded at $3.25 per MMBtu on Monday, down 2.4% from the previous session. In parallel, XRG has reshaped its broader investment strategy, shifting away from low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen and carbon capture due to limited commercial returns .

Helium Shortage Threatens Global Chip Supply

Beyond oil and gas, the Iran conflict has triggered an unexpected crisis in a critical industrial input. Qatar's helium exports, which ordinarily account for approximately 33% of global supply, have been nearly totally interrupted after Iranian drone and missile strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City forced QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on all LNG-related output on March 4, 2026 .

State-owned energy company QatarGas halted production of LNG and "associated products" on March 2 because of Iran's drone attacks and two days later declared force majeure, and after Ras Laffan was hit again by more Iranian strikes, QatarGas reported "extensive" damage that will take years to repair and cut annual helium exports by 14% . Spot prices for helium have doubled since the crisis erupted and will probably rise further, according to Phil Kornbluth, president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting .

Airgas, a US distributor of packaged gases, declared force majeure on helium shipments on March 17, prioritising healthcare customers over other industries and expecting to provide some clients with up to half of their normal monthly helium deliveries . About 200 specialized cryogenic containers are stuck in the Middle East, costing about $1 million each, and "it's going to take a fair amount of time to get these containers out of Qatar and to get them somewhere else where they might be able to be filled with helium," Kornbluth said .

The war highlights the sprawling global supply chains that underpin South Korea's semiconductor industry, which has seen a surge in global demand for its chips amid the AI boom, with Fitch Ratings saying the country is particularly vulnerable to supply shortages because it imports about 65% of its helium from Qatar .

What Comes Next

Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy, told CNN that the UAE's exit from OPEC+ could prompt other members to follow suit, saying "If there is a time to leave, now is the time," and suggesting Kazakhstan might leave as well, noting that OPEC quotas have capped the UAE's output to around 3.2 million barrels per day while production could almost double without its constraints .

Rystad Energy said the UAE's withdrawal marks a significant shift for the oil-producing group, with head of geopolitical analysis Jorge Leon stating that "Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group's hands," adding that "With demand nearing a peak, the calculation for producers with low-cost barrels is changing fast, and waiting your turn inside a quota system starts to look like leaving money on the table" .

The convergence of OPEC's fracturing, the ongoing Hormuz crisis, and cascading supply chain disruptions from helium to fertilizers suggests the energy landscape emerging from this conflict will look fundamentally different than the one that preceded it.